Presidential Elections by the (Economic) Numbers

By Avi Salzman

The economy generally thrives in Presidential election years, but its performance tends to dip in the year following the election. The following tables show, for every election since 1948, the average GDP growth rate and return of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in the fourth quarter of the election year and the year after, along with a three-year average following each election. (The three-year average is calculated using average annual growth between the quarter preceding inauguration and the fourth quarter three years later.)

On average, the GDP growth rate during an election year was 3.74%, and 2.86% in the year following an election. The S&P 500 rose 9.69% in the year of an election, but only 4.01% the year after voters chose a President. The data were compiled by Moody's (MCO) Economy.com.