Turkey

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Turkey


Budget balance: -2.7%
Current account: -6.6%
Sovereign credit rating: BB-/Stable
Stock market: -53.9

Turkey dodged a bullet earlier this year when its top court declined to ban the ruling AKP party and force the President and Prime Minister out of office. But while investors sighed with relief, Turkey's fundamentals have been heading south. GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% in 2007 to just 3% to 3.5% this year. The budget deficit is at 2.7% of GDP and climbing. But Turkey's biggest worry is a current account deficit amounting to 6.6% of GDP. While local banks are strong (with capitalization ratios above 17%) and relatively shielded from the global credit crunch, Turkey's large amount of foreign debt leaves it vulnerable to swings in global investor sentiment. A sudden slowdown in capital inflows could raise borrowing costs and whack the economy.