Economic Growth

Economic Growth

From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the final quarter of 2009, the economists expect the economy to contract 0.2%. However, that's looking across the valley of a long and deep recession concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first and second quarters of 2009. The consensus forecast implies the recession will be the longest since the Great Depression, exceeding the 16-month downturns in both 1973-75 and 1981-82. The implied peak-to-trough decline in real GDP is 2.1%, which is about the average for all recessions since World War II. Nevertheless, almost all economists worry that the risks in the outlook make it more likely their forecasts will be too optimistic, rather than too pessimistic.