8. The Black Swan

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
(Random House — $26.95)

You probably don't realize it, but life is a series of highly improbable yet earthshaking events. That's the argument of The Black Swan, which in many ways is a re-do of the author's 2001 best-seller, Fooled by Randomness. The highly entertaining new book, though, is longer, better-grounded, and with more advice about how to live in the presence of deep unpredictability. The core of The Black Swan argues that economists, journalists, and corporate planners behave as if they're living in predictable "Mediocristan" when they're really in "Extremistan." It's a richly enjoyable read with an important message.