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Where the Pandemic Could Hit
On June 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the pandemic alert level for the H1N1 virus, better known as Swine Flu, to 6 on a scale of 6—the highest warning level for any communicable disease in 40 years. And on Oct. 24, U.S. president Barack Obama declared swine flu a national emergency.
The WHO defines a pandemic as an outbreak of an infectious disease that crosses borders and has the potential for global impact. After its initial appearance in Mexico in April and a brief panic over its spread, H1N1 fell off the media's radar. But the virus continued to spread and now has infected an estimated 27,000 people around the world. More important, it is spreading through local communities via human-to-human transmission—a key criterion that earned it the Level 6 rating from the WHO.
Still, despite the WHO's global alert, some countries are more vulnerable to H1N1 than others. Global risk and advisory consultancy Maplecroft in Bath, England, has devised an analysis that weighs the danger based on three axes: the risk of emergence; the risk of spread; and the capacity to contain.
Click on for a view of the nations and regions most at risk to swine flu.
