No. 8: India-Pakistan

The decision by Pakistan to go after terrorists domestically is providing Islamic extremists with powerful incentives to expand asymmetric attacks on Pakistan's urban centers and to try to reignite Indian-Pakistani conflict. India's counterterrorism capability remains vulnerable and any new attacks would put serious pressure on India to take a tougher line on Pakistan. The U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan will help Washington delay making tougher strategic decisions there until 2011, but serious factors are pushing the Indian and Pakistani governments back toward confrontation.